India’s gold market has touched record highs in 2025, but Guwahati’s local jewellery industry finds itself amid a slowdown. Prices have surpassed Rs 9,700 per gram, yet footfall in jewellery stores is low while consumer sentiment remains muted. According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), India’s gold economy expanded to an estimated Rs 11.2 lakh crore in FY2024–25.
However, the growth is primarily driven by market value and not robust consumer spending and revealing a K-shaped recovery, whereas big jewellery retailers like Tanishq and Malabar Gold have grown through digital innovations, local jewellers and MSMEs in Guwahati are struggling with volatile prices, constrained credit access and intense online competition. As a result, many are left depending on seasonal surges like Akshaya Tritiya to remain viable.
“The skyrocketing prices have definitely taken a toll on the city by affecting the footfall and sales,” said Sagar Sinha, Storage Manager (I/c) at Manik Chand & Sons Jewellers Pvt. Ltd while speaking to Business North East (BNE).
“Bohag Bihu didn’t witness much, but we are hopeful for Akshaya Tritiya. We even offered a 25 per cent discount on making charges to attract buyers during Bohag Bihu,” added Sinha.
Despite the discounts, retailers remain anxious about demand recovery. “We didn’t roll out any special offers for Bihu,” said Pratik Soni, Store Manager at L. Gopal Jewellers, who added, “But we are expecting better turnout during Akshaya Tritiya, which traditionally boosts gold sales.”
Even major retail players like Senco Gold & Diamonds launched offers such as Rs 250 off per gram and a flat Rs 1 diamond-making charge. Yet, the footfall and sales remain sluggish.
This exclusive BNE ground report breaks down the Gold market trend in Guwahati, the impact of price volatility, and the evolving challenges confronting the jewellery sector.
Month-wise Gold Price Trends (Jan 2024 – Apr 2025)
India’s gold trajectory over the past 15 months has been anything but stable. Geopolitical shocks, economic uncertainty, and global market turbulence have contributed to significant price movements. While gold remains a favoured asset for wealth protection, demand for physical jewellery is declining, with financial instruments gaining traction.
April 2025 – The Tipping Point:
On April 17, 24K gold crossed Rs 9,731/gm, while 22K hit Rs 8,920/gm. Middle East conflicts, fresh U.S. tariffs, and broader geopolitical concerns fuelled the surge. Instead of prompting purchases, the rally triggered a sell-off: gold recycling spiked to a three-year high, pointing to distress-led liquidations across cities.
While central banks continued buying, retail consumers remained hesitant during March 2025. Jewellery sales didn’t pick up despite a stable footfall and optimistic pricing forecasts.
A Red Flag for Retail
In February, India’s gold imports dropped 85 per cent YoY—down to the lowest in two decades. Dealers offered discounts as high as $41/oz to offload inventory, underscoring a rare weakness in the retail segment.
Rise of Financial Gold
Despite gold touching Rs 79,079/10 gm in Mumbai, retail consumers preferred ETFs and SGBs over physical purchases in January 2025. Gold ETF inflows hit a record Rs 37.5 billion, according to AMFI.
A Steady Decline During April–December 2024
While gold prices gradually rose, jewellery demand declined. According to IBJA and the World Gold Council (WGC), jewellery consumption dropped 28–30 per cent YoY by the end of FY2024–25. In contrast, financial gold purchases saw growth over 30 per cent.
City-wise Snapshot: Guwahati and Beyond
On April 17, 2025, gold prices in Guwahati closely mirrored national benchmarks—Rs 9,690/gm for 24K and Rs 8,880/gm for 22K. Over the past year, the city’s gold prices have shown intense volatility. Price corrections in July (–2.8 per cent) and November (–2.37 per cent) followed by an 8 per cent surge in January 2025.
The result has been a significant behavioural shift among consumers. Buyers now prefer lightweight, minimalist jewellery or postpone purchases. Investment-led choices such as ETFs, digital gold, and SGBs are increasingly replacing traditional gold buying, especially among urban consumers. Guwahati, which contributes nearly 25 per cent of Assam’s annual gold consumption, reflects national trends—where prices rise, but consumer interest falls.
What’s Driving the Price Surge?
The gold price rally near Rs 10,000/gm is a product of global uncertainty. Central banks in China, Russia, and Turkey are hoarding gold as a hedge against inflation and currency instability. In India, a weak rupee, anticipation around festive buying, and market volatility are reinforcing the upward momentum.
For jewellers in Guwahati and across Assam, the impact is harsh. MSMEs lack access to formal credit, and rising costs of raw gold have squeezed margins. Inventory management, innovation, and digital transformation remain out of reach for many small players.
The Consumption-Shift Paradox
Jewellery consumption fell 40–50 per cent in FY2024–25, but gold investments rose by nearly 30 per cent. In urban areas of the Northeast, this pivot is visible. Caution is prevailing over impulse buying, even in rural belts. Wedding and festive purchases are being postponed, and investment-oriented buying is taking precedence.
Trade Deficit Gains, Market Pain
India’s gold imports hit a record low—just 7 tonnes in February 2025 compared to 55 tonnes the year prior. While this helped narrow the national trade deficit, retailers felt devastated. Sales fell by as much as 60 per cent for many jewellers in tier-2 and tier-3 towns, forcing some to resort to gold recycling or even shut down.
Gold Price Prediction
With global volatility and a potential U.S. interest rate cut on the horizon, analysts predict that gold may hit Rs 10,500/gm. But there are clear signs of fatigue. Unless prices stabilise, demand recovery will be slow and uncertain.
Jewellers are adapting lightweight designs, personalised engravings, and AR/VR-enabled try-on technologies. Although India’s gold industry valuation reached Rs 11.2 lakh crore in FY2024–25, the share of jewellery (Rs 8.4 lakh crore) is under stress. Investment-led demand is rising faster and may soon dominate in terms of CAGR.
The Retail Recession
The retail jewellery sector is under immense pressure. Across the Northeast, including Guwahati, stores report declining conversions and footfall. According to the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), over 12,000 micro and small jewellery shops shut down in the past year alone.
Jewellers in a Bind
Moreover, rising operational costs are eroding profitability. Insurance premiums for theft have increased, raw gold procurement is riskier, and making charges haven’t kept pace with inflation. Despite selling at nearly Rs 96,000 per 10 gm, jewellers are far from reaping significant profits.
Industry Voices and Market Crossroads
“SGB subscriptions are at record highs,” said Ashok Gautam of India Post Payments Bank. “Above Rs 10,000/gm, we risk a total retail collapse,” warned Surendra Mehta of IBJA. WGC’s India head, Somasundaram PR, offered a broader perspective, saying that the demand hasn’t disappeared but has transformed.
India’s Rs 11.2 lakh crore gold market is now at a critical crossroads. Traditional jewellers, especially MSMEs in cities like Guwahati, sees declining footfalls and volatile market prices. On the other hand, investment-grade gold is emerging as the new driver of value.
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