Interfax news agency reported on Monday that Russia's economy ministry has reduced its projection for the average price of Brent crude in 2025 by almost 17 per cent compared to its September estimates for this year. The ministry anticipates in its baseline economic forecast for 2025 that the average price of Brent will be $68 per barrel, a decrease from the $81.7 per barrel it predicted in September, according to Interfax. The ministry estimates the price for Urals, Russia's primary blend, to be $56 per barrel, compared to the $69.7 per barrel that Russia has used as the basis for its 2025 budget.
"We think this is quite a cautious estimate," the agency quoted a ministry representative as stating. The cost of Urals crude oil is vital for the national budget since oil and gas earnings account for one-third of total budget income. In early April, the Russian central bank cautioned that oil prices might drop below projections for a few years due to decreased global demand. Urals prices dropped to their lowest points since 2023 in early April, trading at approximately $53 per barrel and falling below $60 last week.
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The ministry further stated that it does not perceive significant recession risks due to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade conflicts and anticipates global economic growth this year at just over 2 per cent. "The globe remains larger than the United States, thus certain flows will be redirected," Interfax reported a representative of the ministry as stating. The ministry maintained its projection for Russia's gross domestic product growth at 2.5 per cent and raised its inflation estimate to 7.6 per cent from the previous 4.5 per cent. It also indicated that it views the rouble to be slightly stronger than previously expected, averaging 94.3 roubles per dollar this year, compared to an earlier estimate of 96.5 roubles.
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