London: As per reports, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) has released its initial assessment of the global sugar balance for the 2024-25 season, projecting a global sugar deficit of 3.58 million tonnes. This shortfall reflects the difference between global sugar consumption, forecasted at 182.867 million tonnes, and production, expected to be 179.287 million tonnes.
Reportedly, for the current 2023-24 season, the deficit has been significantly reduced to 0.200 million tonnes, down from an earlier estimate of 2.954 million tonnes. This reduction is primarily due to an increase in global sugar production, now revised to 181.263 million tonnes, nearly 2 million tonnes higher than previous estimates.
The most significant change comes from South America, particularly Brazil, where production has been accelerated into the pre-October window, influencing both the 2023-24 and 2024-25 outlooks. Brazil's sugar output is expected to decline by 2.987 million tonnes in the upcoming season.
The ISO also highlighted changes in global trade dynamics, with the 2023-24 import volume revised upward to 68.285 million tonnes, driven by increased demand from port refiners. However, global export availability is expected to drop by 4.094 million tonnes in 2024-25, reflecting decreased output and a less favourable white sugar premium arbitrage.
The organisation noted that the projected deficit for 2024-25 has led to a significant decline in the stock-to-consumption ratio, now at 52.57 percent, with alternative measures indicating a 13-season low. The ISO's outlook for the next three months has shifted from bullish to neutral to bullish, signalling caution in the market.
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