Worldwide sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to increase by at least 17 per cent this year, surpassing 20 million cars, aided by an extension of auto trade-in subsidies in China, according to research firm Rho Motion's forecast on Tuesday. Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Rho Motion, stated that Europe, the world's second-largest EV market, will experience a resurgence in sales growth due to the implementation of CO2 emission targets and the availability of more affordable models, although the rate will be slower than in 2023. Automakers anticipate 2025 as a pivotal year as Europe sets new goals to boost EV adoption and China prolongs subsidies, whereas the U.S. reduces its electrification objectives under President Donald Trump's administration.
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EV sales surge, China, Europe, U.S. growth.
According to Rho Motion's estimates, EV sales in China are expected to surpass the earlier prediction of 17 per cent growth in 2025, enhancing its market dominance due to the continuation of subsidies. In 2024, they soared by an unprecedented 40 per cent to reach 11 million. The firm predicts that sales of Chinese-manufactured EVs will validate the trends of 2024 in Latin America, where they achieved a market share exceeding 80 per cent and will keep increasing in the Asia-Pacific area and developing markets. It predicts a total sales increase of 15 per cent for Europe from the 3 million electric vehicles sold in the previous year.
Carmakers Face €10 Billion EU Emission Penalties Despite Progress; EV Market Growth Predicted
Despite purchasing credits from EV manufacturers via pools, carmakers still face approximately 10 billion euros ($10.51 billion) in penalties for failing to meet EU emission targets, it noted. This contrasts with earlier estimates of 15 billion euros, which did not account for industry advancements and new emission sources. Rho Motion anticipates a 16 per cent increase in EV sales in the U.S. for 2025, with minimal effects from Trump's policy adjustments; however, it foresees long-term implications such as a potential 47 per cent decrease in EV battery demand by 2040. According to Hughes, there's been significant uncertainty in the U.S. market over the past year, leading us to anticipate lowered EV forecasts. "Nonetheless, the transition to electric vehicles is still underway, and we will continue to witness growth in the coming decade," Hughes said while speaking to Reuters.
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